Don't Look Back

Our democracy will die in the near future. There is great gnashing of teeth over trapping the perpetrators of the 06 January coup attempt, but the hazard lies ahead. Republican manipulation of the state wide electoral process has been well described by the national media, but it isn't clear to me that the average American understands the implications.

The media has played up the concept of state legislatures throwing out future results.This is a real possibility, and it may infuriate voters. We have never had to worry about our votes not counting. Now we will.

But I see another potential aspect. 06 January was a firebreak for political violence in modern American electoral politics. Expect Republican thugs and their fellow travelers to be present at key polling places, and expect them to seek violence as a way both to intimidate, and to simply act out for self aggrandizement. If you think it can't happen here, think back to 06 January 2021.

The fact is, the Roman Revolution in the United States has already begun (See Syme, Ronald; “The Roman Revolution. Oxford, 1939). Donald Trump may not be president, but he is in full control of the Republican nominating process. Elected officials in safe seats and offices have suddenly found themselves facing primary challenges due to some perceived slight felt by the Donald's fragile ego. He says the word, and a Trump loyalist challenges a long time Republican office holder. Trump is driving his party just as surely as Octavian was driving the Roman Senate. Those Republicans who might oppose Trump are silent (See McConnell, Mitch R-KY).

When we consider Democratic incompetence in the current congressional session, and Republican manipulation of the electoral process, the probability of a Republican Congress in 2022 is better than even, and a Trump presidency in 2024 an even better bet.

Once all branches of government are in Republican hands, democracy as we know it will fall to the lessons the Trump Administration learned in its first, abortive term. Donald Trump will be unrestrained.

Remember, the Constitution places responsibility for elections in the hands of the state legislatures. Only the social contract has kept that responsibility honest. “Stop the Steal” ended that contract as the Republican party abandoned the fundamental western concept of truth. Now truth is what you want it to be.

Biden's Red Line

I hear tell from Jen the Press PSecretary that President Biden has drawn a Red Rine with Vladimir Putin. Did Biden's National Security Advisor tell him that we are barely playing checkers (maybe tick tack toe) while Putin is playing 3-D chess? Jake Sullivan probably didn't bring that up because Jake is an idiot. At his all too tender age, the National Security Advisor is already a warmed over alumnus of the Obama Administration, where he helped craft such ingenious ventures as the Syrian fiasco (complete with its own very special, and meaningless Red Line) and the barely thought out Libyan adventure that destabilized the country without the slightest clue as to what the result might be.

The Red Line supposedly revolves about an “invasion”. So an internally engineered coup after destabilization, with Russian troops “requested” to intervene and restore order, crosses no Red Line. It's a familiar playbook.

President Biden was careful to chat with Ukrainian President Zalinsky for just about as long as he spoke with Putin. Uncle Joe's conscience will be clean in the aftermath, assuming he remembers all this.

Does anyone want to bet on the US having a coherent plan that has been vetted with our allies any more than we vetted the Afghan pullout?

It's Beginning to Feel a Bit Like 1939

I am a very poor predictor, but there is the smell of disaster in the air. The strong leaders are on the wrong side, and they are on the move. Putin in Russia is likely to move on Ukraine. He's taken a chunk of the country back, and would like it all. Russia would like Ukraine to once again be the 'The Ukraine,' or Little Russia. Given the sorry state of the Russian treasury, it's unlikely Putin would move that many troops and their materiel on the border unless he intends to use them. They may not execute a frontal invasion; they may be called upon to stabilize a country thrown into chaos by other means, but they will be employed for something.

My guess is that Putin's lackeys will wipe out Ukrainian telecommunications, then pull off a coup, complete with agents provocateur to create the chaos the new puppet needs to call for a stabilizing Russian intervention. That was the 40s playbook. Vladimir Putin has publicly stated that Russia feels naked without her empire. Russia supplies nearly all of Ukraine'a natural gas, so that's a card to be played. It can only be played well since the Putin has found another source of gas revenue, making it possible to shut the Ukrainian spigot. And he has found that source.

Joseph Biden, the Weak Old man in the White House, has encouraged this by waiving sanctions on users of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline system, that bypasses Ukraine. It will supply our NATO allies with Russian natural gas and Putin with desperately needed money to enrich himself and his cronies, and finance adventures such as the destabilization and re-absorbtion of former Soviet colonies. Perhaps the Baltic states will be next. Though they aren't on the US news radar, Russia has been bombarding them with destabilizing fake news for years.

If Biden wanted to kick Putin back a few yards, he could leverage our “allies” to swear off Russian gas in return for US gas. We have enough gas, and there are enough LNG tankers to do the job. But Biden is too busy cutting the throat of his petroleum industry to placate the Democratic Party's extreme left wing.

On the other side of the world, China shows signs of preparing to invade Taiwan. China never, ever backs down. That's an important lesson that US foreign policy experts would do well to learn. You don't influence Chinese behavior. You might deter future action, especially if you are obviously willing to go to war. China isn't just paranoid at the thought of being surrounded. She is paranoid at the possibility of anyone preventing her from becoming the most powerful country in the world, able to dominate everyone else.

These days Chinese military aircraft are constantly violating Taiwanese airspace, and Chinese civilian ferries have been seen equipped to double as invasion craft. China's increased belligerence in this area may be tied to the following:

— The recent US security guarantee (how many Americans noticed this?)

— The US sale of a much more advanced block of F-16 fighters to Taiwan

— The landing of US Marines on the island for joint training

— The Taiwanese government's announcement that they have secured the necessary foreign technology to build their own modern submarines

The US has several allies and would-be allies who are affected by the Chinese vast territorial claims beyond their current borders based on “historical” issues. We should keep in mind that some of those Chinese claims are on Russian territory. Last time Russia and China fought over those claims (in the 60s) things got so out of hand that the Soviet Government felt obliged to move the strategic Baikal-Amur Railway several hundred miles north, “Just in case.”

The emergence of Xi as a singular apparent president for life has added to the risk.

It would not take a very big mistake to create a two front war in a world where the United States itself is an unstable democracy.

I could add more, but it would only distress, and details are, well, details. They cannot be well predicted. It's enough to say that a true Axis of Evil is on the move, and the United States is not only no longer the leader of the world's democracies. It is its own enemy. Look for things to get worse in 2024, if it matters by then.