Resting on a Knife Edge of Disaster

There is lots of Ukraine love right now. I have some myself. The Russian Army seems bogged down, but it has a generous inventory of missiles, and is determined to use them to turn the Ukrainian infrastructure into rubble. This missile campaign has minimal strategic or tactical utility, but the one bit of value it has is that there is little defense against it, and it satisfies the Russian rage at being kicked around like a rag doll by those stupid Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians may continue to resist, and even break the siege of their of their country thanks to western support, but if they do, a particular shadow will loom over them. Putin is furious with the United States for its support of that pesky non—country he is fighting to absorb, but he dares not strike back at us. As much as he may rail against the evil of the US, he know war with the US means the end. The end of his sitting in the antique chairs in the glorious Kremlin halls. The end of those hockey games where all the other players are afraid to defend against him, and he scores at will. The end of those billions he's extorted from the western companies that foolishly tried to do business in Russia. War between Russia and the US means the real end, so he can only make noise about that.

But Ukraine is something else. He has put every ounce of his prestige on the line over that, and made it a religious crusade, even if the Metropolitan of Moscow could only be persuaded to give it a luke—warm endorsement. Driven far enough into a corner, he may feel unconstrained about using nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil to finally put the issue to bed before the West enters the conflict, making it impossible to resolve it in Russia's favor. He may consider that the world will not lose much sleep over nukes in Ukraine, as long as they stay in Ukraine, and their use may be a convenient threat to keep superior western military forces out.

There's no predicting the course of action of a desperate tyrant, but one ought to take care when considering the risks.

What Does Russia Mean by “it would be destruction of their country if Finland joins NATO?”

This question was circulated on the Quora site. I'm providing my ansewer here.

The very short answer is it means that Vladimir Putin is highly offended by the idea, but let’s look at the rationale.

1. Russia has had a troubled relationship with Finland. It was a Russian Grand Duchy in the 19th Century, and having once been under Russian dominance, Putin seems to think it should be there again (see also Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia - more on these later). In 1940, Stalin decided that big bad Finland, sitting as it did at the edge of the Karelian Isthmus, was a great threat to Leningrad, so he invaded Finland, where upon the Finns beat up the Russian Army badly. Eventually sheer Russian numbers overwhelmed the Finns in this Winter War, but it was an embarrassment to the Russians. The Finns hate the Russians (just ask a few Finns); Russia has sought to keep Finland neutral, in a state of unofficial subjugation.

2. Calling it “the destruction of their country” is an obvious and massive exaggeration, yet it’s precisely the type of propagandistic statement that Vladimir Putin loves to make. After all, he’s made a massive attack on Ukraine based on a bed of lies that keep coming.

3. It shows Russia’s sense of inadequacy. Since the failure of Russian democracy (with the rise of Putin), any historical event that tends to place democracy, freedom, or prosperity in closer proximity to Russia is a threat to Putin and his kleptocracy. The only way to do business in Russia is to do it through Putin and his associates. In theory one can do otherwise, but corporations have found that going around the Putin cabal results in ruinous tax bills.

4. Putin has officially stated that Russia has the right to dominate what he calls the near abroad. In this context Russian agents have been attacking Georgia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia with cyber warfare and locally generated fake news. He also chewed off a part of Georgia (South Ossetia).

5. So, the comment about Finland does not stand alone. It’s part of a larger Russian irredentist push. I believe that Putin feels confident about subverting or attacking neighboring countries because he sees his nuclear arsenal as a shield against retaliation, or even against significant assistance to his victims from the US. But if the US doesn’t push back, Ukraine will just be the start; Finland will be on the menu, and the Finns know it. Hence their push for a fast track to NATO membership.

6. Here’s a bit of irony. Just as Putin seeks to dominate adjacent countries, or in the case of Ukraine, suggest that they are really part of Russia, China has similar claims to parts of Russia’s far eastern areas. In 1969 the two countries fought a war in one border area. It concerned the then Soviet Union enough that it moved the strategic Baikal-Amur railway several hundred miles to the north of its previous location. The rumor is that, while Russia is occupied with Ukraine, China has intensified its trade and cross border relations with the disputed Russian territories. Perhaps Finland joining NATO isn’t the only threat Russia needs to watch.

Our Very Own Truths

In his book “Truth: A History and a Guide for the Perplexed,” Felipe Fernandez-Armesto discusses the differing concepts of truth as seen by various cultures. Those of us reared in the West assume that truth and facts are immutable, but in some cultures this isn't so. Fernandez-Armesto argues that it was this adherence to a concrete concept of truth that enabled western civilization to dominate the world for so long. But we have entered a new age, where people in all cultures, including those in the West, look for truth, not for its immutability, but for its comfort. This change has been enabled by social media, where new online “experts” replace traditional credentialed experts. Government, always suspect, is now often the last place people will look for facts.

In most areas of the world, society has fragmented into carefully delineated political tribes which are earnestly seeking their own truths. They look upon those pedaling “actual” truth as fools or charlatans, often accusing them of pushing false information in pursuit of more and more academic grants, or socialism. Unfortunately, these accusations offer comfort to many in society who see some of the broad truths of our time, such as climate change, as designed to cheat ordinary people of their prosperity. Ironically, there may be something to this, as the beautiful people and ultra wealthy travel to conferences in their private jets to discuss how the future will involve “living smaller,” (for thee but not for me) if the example is any clue.

Whatever the facts may be, the fragmentation of knowledge is here to stay. The fight for legitimacy by knowledge peddlers in the public square, both authoritative nd pure liars, will continue, and the harm of false prophets will only increase.

The Edge of Yesterday and Bye, Bye Moskva

The world got hotter today, and riskier, as Russia told the United States: “Hands off Ukraine.” That is to say, Vladimir Putin said there will be grave consequences if the US continues to help Ukraine whip Russia’s butt. Let’s remember, at this point in time Putin is Russia. He’s furious at Ukraine for having no part in the sinking of the Russian Fleet Flagship Moskva (ex-Slava). Slava means glory — she garnered little of it in her long but undistinguished life.

Putin’s diplomatic lackey delivered a strong diplomatic note to the US State Department today implying that the western logistics pipeline to Ukraine would shortly be a target if it continued to flow arms to the upstart non-nation that refuses to roll over to his troops, air force, and ballistic missiles.

My advice to Joe Biden and those fools, Blinken and Sullivan, who are presumably advising him? Get a spine. Tell Putin that any attack on any US forces, wherever they may be located, is an act of war, including if they happen to be in the sovereign nation of Ukraine. Why? Because it’s finally time for Putin to not be the only one issuing threats in this operation. It’s not brinkmanship, it’s statesmanship If we continue to let a wider war frighten us, we'll gradually get one whether we like it or not.

Close The United Nations

Turn that futile debating society into a park, and send those freeloading bureaucrats home. If there is a single worthless entity in this world, it is the United Nations. It has been worthless for years, but in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the full moral bankruptcy of the UN is on display. Six weeks ago, the current chair of the Security Council invaded a neighboring country on a pretext even thinner than that used by the United States to invade Iraq, and unlike the United States, Russia intends to absorb Ukraine as its very own. The fact that the UN is incapable of dealing with such a fundamental challenge to the peaceful international order portrays its complete uselessness.

Sure, Russia’s war crimes will be alleged for years, perhaps forever, given the epoxy that carefully lubricates the international legal system. But the evidence has been paraded before the world. It’s unreal only to Russia, where it is, in Soviet speak, a grave provocation, and in China and India, two of Russia cheer leaders.

If you’d like a cherry atop this morally bankrupt international cake, I present the UN Human Rights Council, where Human Rights are discussed by the likes of North Korea, Venezuela, China, and Somalia. Israel and Taiwan, two actual, not pretend democracies need not apply.