What Does Russia Mean by “it would be destruction of their country if Finland joins NATO?”

This question was circulated on the Quora site. I'm providing my ansewer here.

The very short answer is it means that Vladimir Putin is highly offended by the idea, but let’s look at the rationale.

1. Russia has had a troubled relationship with Finland. It was a Russian Grand Duchy in the 19th Century, and having once been under Russian dominance, Putin seems to think it should be there again (see also Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia - more on these later). In 1940, Stalin decided that big bad Finland, sitting as it did at the edge of the Karelian Isthmus, was a great threat to Leningrad, so he invaded Finland, where upon the Finns beat up the Russian Army badly. Eventually sheer Russian numbers overwhelmed the Finns in this Winter War, but it was an embarrassment to the Russians. The Finns hate the Russians (just ask a few Finns); Russia has sought to keep Finland neutral, in a state of unofficial subjugation.

2. Calling it “the destruction of their country” is an obvious and massive exaggeration, yet it’s precisely the type of propagandistic statement that Vladimir Putin loves to make. After all, he’s made a massive attack on Ukraine based on a bed of lies that keep coming.

3. It shows Russia’s sense of inadequacy. Since the failure of Russian democracy (with the rise of Putin), any historical event that tends to place democracy, freedom, or prosperity in closer proximity to Russia is a threat to Putin and his kleptocracy. The only way to do business in Russia is to do it through Putin and his associates. In theory one can do otherwise, but corporations have found that going around the Putin cabal results in ruinous tax bills.

4. Putin has officially stated that Russia has the right to dominate what he calls the near abroad. In this context Russian agents have been attacking Georgia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia with cyber warfare and locally generated fake news. He also chewed off a part of Georgia (South Ossetia).

5. So, the comment about Finland does not stand alone. It’s part of a larger Russian irredentist push. I believe that Putin feels confident about subverting or attacking neighboring countries because he sees his nuclear arsenal as a shield against retaliation, or even against significant assistance to his victims from the US. But if the US doesn’t push back, Ukraine will just be the start; Finland will be on the menu, and the Finns know it. Hence their push for a fast track to NATO membership.

6. Here’s a bit of irony. Just as Putin seeks to dominate adjacent countries, or in the case of Ukraine, suggest that they are really part of Russia, China has similar claims to parts of Russia’s far eastern areas. In 1969 the two countries fought a war in one border area. It concerned the then Soviet Union enough that it moved the strategic Baikal-Amur railway several hundred miles to the north of its previous location. The rumor is that, while Russia is occupied with Ukraine, China has intensified its trade and cross border relations with the disputed Russian territories. Perhaps Finland joining NATO isn’t the only threat Russia needs to watch.