Monday, April 6, 2020

The Limits of Efficacy

Social distancing is the new term we have all learned, but sheltering in place is the activity that is having the greatest effect on society. Social distancing is a pain in the neck when you’re in line at the market. Keeping six feet between each person can make the check out line run halfway to the back of the store if we all follow the rules. But being shut in is a different story. People aren’t just isolated. Too many are now either unemployed or underemployed. Unemployment insurance and the government’s supplement won’t cover the wage gap, nor will whatever federal largess is planned keep most small businesses afloat. Somehow the Boeings and the Raytheons will do just fine. I know keeping the population sheltering in place works, but reality says that after about two months, the population is going to come out. People will be nearly broke, half crazy, and ready to riot. They will know their jobs are gone. Proprietors will know their businesses are finished. We may have rioting or at least excess crime. While that may be a good excuse for the gun control crowd to get to work, it won't be good for the country overall.

We might as well face the fact that we will have to open up the country by the beginning of June, whether it's the best thing to do or not. The people telling us otherwise are scientists with paychecks who understand the epidemiology but not the psychology. The result will be (I assume) infection spread. So, (in the words of Lenin) "what is to be done." The answer is to plan on an industrial scale to the medical fallout for the consequences. I assume this means testing nearly the entire population. It means much more, but our country is no longer the scientific giant it once was. Science means respect for facts, and a significant segment of the population no longer respects facts they don't like.

I think the alternative to my idea is widespread social unrest fueled by both being shut in and incitement by the lunatic media. Just a thought, but sometimes you have to look at more than just the science, and plan ahead for doing something that appears ill advised.

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