Never before has a nuclear power invaded another country for the purpose of annexing it. The Russian invasion of Ukraine places the western world in quick sand. Should the west attempt to aid Ukraine too much, perhaps to the point where the Ukrainians appear capable if preserving their sovereignty, a desperate Russia, a desperate Vladimir Putin, knowing that his life may depend on the success of his venture, might find the nuclear option irresistible. Where might that option end? During the Cold War we spoke of a “fire break.” In the event that a war on the central front went nuclear, what might enable the belligerents to create a stopping point before things accelerated too far? In the case of Ukraine, if Russia, apparently controlled by a single despot, adopted the nuclear option in a desperate effort to salvage a disastrous adventure, where would the fire break be? Would Putin expect that the simple use of a nuke would create a pause on the part of all other parties out of fear that things might further escalate? Or would the west see nuclear escalation as the only course to prevent the emasculation of NATO? My guess is the former; NATO would back down, and we would see a generation of Russian domination of Europe under their nuclear umbrella. That would also make the US deterrent worthless. One suspects President Biden is not up to this task, but it’s impossible to tell until the situation fully unfolds. The best possible outcome is an early fall of Putin by dissatisfied oligarchs. Getting the best out of this won’t be easy.
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