Ukraine on My Mind

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Via: Arab News, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Mar. 16—GROZNY — Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov has expressed support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s signing of the independence documents of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as his launch of a “military operation” in Ukraine.

He hailed Putin’s signing of the independence documents of Donetsk and Luhansk as a historic decision that will put an end to the bloodshed and violence that 4 million people have been subjected to in the two provinces for eight years.

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My thoughts:

It's a curious thing that the Chechen Head of State should meet with Vladimir Putin to express support for the rape of Ukraine. It's curious and ironic. From the 90s through the early 00s Russian leaders turned Chechnya into an ash heap of rubble as the Chechens struggled for independence from the Russian Federation, while Russia remained doggedly determined to keep the republic from breaking free.

Chechnya had never been a good fit. Chechens had a reputation as gangsters and criminals within the Soviet Union, and very few of them had risen in the ranks of the Communist Party. In the course of three wars for independence in the Post Soviet Era, Soviet bombers and artillery flattened most significant Chechen cities, including the capital, Grozny (three times); Russia was done with devolution. The Russians are good at this. In the 19th century they massacred the Circassians, driving the survivors to the shores of the Black Sea, leaving them to die. Those hardy souls eventually made their way to Ottoman Palestine, where they founded their own village that still exists, along with some very long memories. They live side by side with Israelis, in a country populated by survivors of many a massacre.

Now, at this remarkable point in history, we have Russia as a belligerent on the western front in Europe, busy adjusting an external border by force. This is something we thought the founding of the UN meant would never happen again in our time. We’re topping it off with praise for this barbaric act by a man who heads the ‘republic’ that Russia had last practiced this bit of rampant destruction on.

If one were penning a cartoon of the present situation, it might involve the Russian Bear carving up its prey with one hand while holding off the western world with a handful of nukes. But reality is that if this is the case, Russia can carve up anything it wishes while holding off the rest of the world with a quiver of nukes. Best to take the risk and push back with a double dare now; find out if Vladimir Putin really thinks that conquest is worth nuclear annihilation. The future of western civilization may be at stake. Whether or not it is won’t be clear until it’s too late. Weak men must not be permitted to shoulder a burden they cannot carry.

Apropos My Most Recent Post

From today's New York Times:

Contrary to the claim that Putin’s behavior is a result of Western provocation — like refusing to absolutely rule out eventual NATO membership for Ukraine — the West has mainly spent 22 years placating Putin through a long cycle of resets and wrist slaps. The devastation of Ukraine is the fruit of this appeasement.

— Bret Stephens

A Situation Like No Other in History

Never before has a nuclear power invaded another country for the purpose of annexing it. The Russian invasion of Ukraine places the western world in quick sand. Should the west attempt to aid Ukraine too much, perhaps to the point where the Ukrainians appear capable if preserving their sovereignty, a desperate Russia, a desperate Vladimir Putin, knowing that his life may depend on the success of his venture, might find the nuclear option irresistible. Where might that option end? During the Cold War we spoke of a “fire break.” In the event that a war on the central front went nuclear, what might enable the belligerents to create a stopping point before things accelerated too far? In the case of Ukraine, if Russia, apparently controlled by a single despot, adopted the nuclear option in a desperate effort to salvage a disastrous adventure, where would the fire break be? Would Putin expect that the simple use of a nuke would create a pause on the part of all other parties out of fear that things might further escalate? Or would the west see nuclear escalation as the only course to prevent the emasculation of NATO? My guess is the former; NATO would back down, and we would see a generation of Russian domination of Europe under their nuclear umbrella. That would also make the US deterrent worthless. One suspects President Biden is not up to this task, but it’s impossible to tell until the situation fully unfolds. The best possible outcome is an early fall of Putin by dissatisfied oligarchs. Getting the best out of this won’t be easy.

A Puppet Dream (I Think)

“Hello, Gary.” The turtle greeted me as I entered Rose's office. My wife wore a sly grin as she peeked at me from behind the puppet, bobbing the head up and down. “G, Gary, how are you today?” The turtle looked me right in the eyes as he asked the simple question. Before I could answer he shook his head back and forth inquisitively. “I'm fine, thank you.” I'm married to a comedian and a puppeteer. When she came back from Australia, customs asked what she had to declare. One might have expected a boomerang, or some exotic Aussie native carvings or spices. She declared “Four hand puppets.”

“Gaaary,” the turtle called. “I have a friend. Would you like to meet him?” “I would. Very much.” “Oh; oh good.” The other hand moved up slowly, exposing a tawny brown bunny. “Hello Gary. It's nice to meet you.” The bunny rocked gently fore and aft as he spoke, then stopped and looked directly at me. He had a pure, sincere look on his face as he looked me right in the eye, his head slightly cocked. “I've enjoyed living here, but the cats can be difficult. They like to paw at me.” “I'm sorry, bunny. I have no control over them.” “I understand, Gary, but maybe you could talk to them…?” His voice trailed off hopefully.

That was the end of our puppet session. I was on my way out the door. By the time I got home I was exhausted. I fell into bed and was quickly asleep, but I awoke in the middle of the night to use the bathroom. We have only one in the house, on the first floor, so I stumbled through the dark, gingerly negotiating the stairs. When I got to the bottom I noticed Rose had left the lights on in her office. I reached in to turn them off. “Gaaary.” You're supposed to know when you're awake. Being conscious of dreaming is another thing. Turning off the light, I stumbled to the dark bathroom and found my way to the padded bench. There had been a time when I had the situational awareness to flip on the light. Now I stared into the dark. “Gaaary. Why did you turn off the light? Come back. We miss you!” My wife wasn't in the office, but the bunny was talking — or was it the turtle? I slipped down onto the floor. I was going to sleep right there until sunrise. “Gaaary — please.”

I was shaking. Crawling out to the hallway, into the office, I reached up and flipped on the lights. The turtle's head began moving side to side, then down until it found me. “What are you doing down there, Gary? Come up here and play.” This time Rose had gone too far. I don't know how she had brought these puppets to life, but it was creepy. “What do you guys want?” “We're lonely,” the Rabbit whined. “But how can you talk without Rose?” “She's lucky we talk when she's around,” he turtle giggled. Does the Koala talk too?” “No. She's a snob.” "I thought they were cute and cuddly." "You've been watching too many old Quantas commercials on youTube." "You guys know about youTube?" ""Of course. We have to do something when Rose leaves us all alone. It would be nice if she took us with her. We could spice up her lessons." "Sure, I said."

I heard steps behind me. “Who are you talking to?” “Nobody,” I told my wife. "I just came down to use the bathroom."

An Afternoon Dream

I close my eyes,

Eight bells sound,

“Relieve the watch

Relieve the wheel

And the lookout.”

My ears perceive the prow

As it cuts the waves,

Splitting the sea,

Throwing the waters aside

With that powerful hiss.

My nose wishes it could smell

The oil that keeps

This steel engine whole

In the face of sea and salt,

I don’t want to open my eyes.

When I do, I shall be

An old man again,

Sitting at my desk,

In my house,

In the forest,

Far from the sea,

While young men do the work,

I long to do.

Don't Look Back

Our democracy will die in the near future. There is great gnashing of teeth over trapping the perpetrators of the 06 January coup attempt, but the hazard lies ahead. Republican manipulation of the state wide electoral process has been well described by the national media, but it isn't clear to me that the average American understands the implications.

The media has played up the concept of state legislatures throwing out future results.This is a real possibility, and it may infuriate voters. We have never had to worry about our votes not counting. Now we will.

But I see another potential aspect. 06 January was a firebreak for political violence in modern American electoral politics. Expect Republican thugs and their fellow travelers to be present at key polling places, and expect them to seek violence as a way both to intimidate, and to simply act out for self aggrandizement. If you think it can't happen here, think back to 06 January 2021.

The fact is, the Roman Revolution in the United States has already begun (See Syme, Ronald; “The Roman Revolution. Oxford, 1939). Donald Trump may not be president, but he is in full control of the Republican nominating process. Elected officials in safe seats and offices have suddenly found themselves facing primary challenges due to some perceived slight felt by the Donald's fragile ego. He says the word, and a Trump loyalist challenges a long time Republican office holder. Trump is driving his party just as surely as Octavian was driving the Roman Senate. Those Republicans who might oppose Trump are silent (See McConnell, Mitch R-KY).

When we consider Democratic incompetence in the current congressional session, and Republican manipulation of the electoral process, the probability of a Republican Congress in 2022 is better than even, and a Trump presidency in 2024 an even better bet.

Once all branches of government are in Republican hands, democracy as we know it will fall to the lessons the Trump Administration learned in its first, abortive term. Donald Trump will be unrestrained.

Remember, the Constitution places responsibility for elections in the hands of the state legislatures. Only the social contract has kept that responsibility honest. “Stop the Steal” ended that contract as the Republican party abandoned the fundamental western concept of truth. Now truth is what you want it to be.

Biden's Red Line

I hear tell from Jen the Press PSecretary that President Biden has drawn a Red Rine with Vladimir Putin. Did Biden's National Security Advisor tell him that we are barely playing checkers (maybe tick tack toe) while Putin is playing 3-D chess? Jake Sullivan probably didn't bring that up because Jake is an idiot. At his all too tender age, the National Security Advisor is already a warmed over alumnus of the Obama Administration, where he helped craft such ingenious ventures as the Syrian fiasco (complete with its own very special, and meaningless Red Line) and the barely thought out Libyan adventure that destabilized the country without the slightest clue as to what the result might be.

The Red Line supposedly revolves about an “invasion”. So an internally engineered coup after destabilization, with Russian troops “requested” to intervene and restore order, crosses no Red Line. It's a familiar playbook.

President Biden was careful to chat with Ukrainian President Zalinsky for just about as long as he spoke with Putin. Uncle Joe's conscience will be clean in the aftermath, assuming he remembers all this.

Does anyone want to bet on the US having a coherent plan that has been vetted with our allies any more than we vetted the Afghan pullout?